Saturday, January 16, 2010

Open up the checkbook for Few

Going on the assumption that Ernie Kent is gone at the end of this season, Mark Few is the logical choice for a replacement. Rumor has it that his asking price was way more than what we were willing to pay, when Kilkenny went to him last year, but if money is going to be an object in hiring a coach, then you've made a big mistake by building a 200 million dollar arena. I'm not sure if Few takes the job, but if you want to fill the arena right away you're going to have to pay big money for a coach.

If you want to hire a lesser known guy, for less money, you aren't going to bring back all the fans that have bailed on the team right now. Sure, you'll get some back. There are fans that just want anyone but Ernie at the helm. But you won't get enough to fill your new arena unless the hire itself is exciting. Just being "not Ernie" isn't good enough to be exciting.

If you want Matt Court filled to the brim, you give Few whatever he wants, no matter how much more than you were planning to spend it is. He's worth the money.


  • He's a big enough name to get fans interested.
  • He's got local ties which is important to some people (i.e. gets more people excited).
    He's a big enough name, and well known enough, to make it more likely that the current players stay.
  • He runs an umtempo system:
    • Hiring an uptempo coach is important. We still have a young team and in any coaching change, players transferring is a concern. These players came to Oregon in part because they wanted to play in an open court game. Their skill sets are geared to it, and that's what they want to do. You're less likely to lose players if you get an open court coach. Also, its another thing that just gets more people excited to come watch.




None of this has even dealt with how good of a coach Few is, or how much success I would expect him to have here. Because, that's just impossible to know with any coach. I'm not even 100% sold that Few makes the jump from mid-major to major coach smoothly (his predecessor didn't). Its entirely possible that he's just the right fit for Gonzaga. But he's the coach that makes sense for Oregon. Even when we were doing well recently, Ernie was on the hot seat with many fans. Even during that last Elite 8 run. And that's the biggest problem with keeping Ernie here any more. It doesn't even necessarily matter what his results are, there are just a lot of fans that are done with him...period.

Based on his local ties, his success in the Northwest, and simply the mentality of the fanbase, Few is a guy who will have all the support he needs and more. He'll have a longer leash than other coaches, be given more leeway. Yes, without success, that support will run dry at some point, but its important to have it to begin with. And he'll have it in spades.

So you make a run at Few, no matter what it costs you.

The alternatives aren't too exciting.

There's Mike Dunlap, who is a very well respected guy in coaching circles. But, he hasn't come in and worked miracles here yet. It very well may not be his fault at all, as there's no way to know how much or little impact he's been allowed to have. However, I just can't imagine that, after letting go of Ernie you would hire somebody from his staff. No matter how brief a period of time that person was on his staff. Dunlap may be a great coach, but that's certainly not a way to get anybody excited. And generating excitement is the #1 job of the new hire, from the AD's perspective.

We'll hear Reveno's name tossed out there(from University of Portland). Everybody was high on him earlier this year, when they notched a few "big" upsets. But they've crashed and burned since, and their wins may not have been as great as they looked in the first place. A lot of credit was given to them for pasting UCLA, but everyone's been doing that these days. Really, we had every opportunity to win that game at UP earlier in the year. And that was during our first stretch of poor basketball, with Dunigan out with injury. Since UP's good start, they've been blown out by 20 to Idaho, blown out by 40 by Washington and they've lost a lot of other games. They've really fallen off the map and now have the same record that we do. Raveno's not a known name, nationally. Barely even regionally, and not going to bring excitement enough to open a new arena.

We'll hear Bennett and Grier's name get tossed out there (from Saint Mary's and San Diego). 2 guys that have done ok in the WCC, just squeaking into the tournament one year each. Neither has been able to threaten Gonzaga in the league. San Diego's really not done much the last couple years (they are 8-11 right now), and do we really want to replace a Saint Mary's coach with another Saint Mary's coach?

I'd say, especially depending on how the Seattle U game at Washington goes, Cameron Dollar's name might be thrown out there. But, he's in his first year as a coach, and aside from the beat down they put on OSU, Seattle hasn't done a whole lot. He could be a great recruiter though, and we'd probably be better able to dip into the state of Washington for recruits, while at the same time weaken UW's recruiting.

That's far from a complete list of options and I'm not saying that an unknown somewhere, or an up and comer, can't come in a get the job done. On the court somebody unknown very well might be "better" than Few. But, the goal of this hire is going to be getting butts in seats, immediately. Some assistant somewhere, or some unknown, might be the next John Wooden, but it won't matter a bit if Matt Court opens with 2000 fans in the place.

After you've already invested 200 something million dollars is not the time to be cheap about the hire.

17 comments:

  1. "Give him whatever he wants". What an idiot.

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  2. Two years ago, I was big on the Few Wagon.
    (This is year three of me asking for EK's exit)
    However since that time I have talked to former Gonzaga players about his style. I love discipled basketball, and lord knows we could use a little at UO. But I am not so sure Fews "heavy hand" would be well received in Eugene. The players also brought up Fews' inability to win the "big one".
    Here in Seattle we have thrown around the Cameron Dollar name too. A former member of the Lorenzo UW program is not a bad resume' however a smidge unproven as a head coach.
    Perhaps some NC, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, assistants? I don't claim to have the answer, I would just like to see some additional names on the list.

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  3. I don't care who coaches. If people insist on calling the new arena "Matt Court," I will never go. Matthew Knight Arena is fine. Matt Court is stupid. Knight Court or nothing. Don't let a golfer's off-hand remark become the name for the arena.

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  4. I would hope Dave Rose from BYU is on the list. If you look at what he has turned BYU into, running an up tempo style with BYU's limits on recruiting. I think he could take Oregon's talent and be very very good.

    He is also doing it in the MWC which is much better than the WCC. There is no shine on Mark Few for me.

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  5. Luke Ridnour is getting read to retire?

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  6. You've nailed the problem on the head, who does Oregon get to replace Kent? He's had more success at Oregon than any other coach, yet you're right, fans are done with him, as much as it pains me to see it. I don't know why Few would come to Oregon. He can get almost any amount of money he wants anywhere in the country and Oregon isn't exactly a sleeping giant of a program. Why would he trade a program that has been built almost from the ground up by him and has national recognition for a Pac 10 program that has no real advantages? The Arena? He has a brand new arena in Spokane. The only reason I can see him leaving would because he's an alum and grew up here, but that's not a very big reason considering what he has.
    Personally I think the Ducks need to find an up and coming Mid-major coach that emphasizes defense. Personally I don't think an up tempo team will help if they continue to play defense like they have.

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  7. With a 200 million arena to open, the Ducks thought beyond their comfort $$$ level and offered the women's job to Westhead.

    Aim high for a guy in the Bruce Pearl league, just a step below Coach K, Calhoun, and Pitino.

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  8. EK must and will go, but Few is the last guy we need. He's a pompus jerk with a Napoleon complex and loves to make excuses when things don't go his way just like Ernie. He would do little to raise a Pac-10 team's stock. Gonzaga Basketball sells Gonzaga Basketball to recruits, not Mark Few.

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  9. Like I said, I'm not even 100% sold, myself, on Few's coaching prowess. I think its a risk. But, you need a big name and I just don't see other big names that are realistic for us.

    Somebody mentioned Bruce Pearl. I'd love to have him. Or other guys around that level of prestige, like Jay Wright or Mike Anderson. But those are guys that have only ever coached on the East Coast, or the South. Guys that can have their choice of jobs in the ACC or SEC in time.

    The problem with these guys is that Oregon isn't even on their radar. If Few's asking price was too high, these would be even higher and, while we can easily pay more for Few than Gonzaga can, a bidding war with Tennessee is only going to push the price much higher.

    An unknown, or up and comer, might be fine in the long run. The problem is that it won't fill the arena when it opens, which is what the Athletic Department is most concerned with.

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  10. if oregon wants to fill Knights glass palace, next year Kent must go. They need to get a very good young coach, that can recuirt players who can shoot and rebound, and plat defench. None of their players know how to do that. Thank god porter will be gone cant belive kent keeps playing him!!

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  11. I don't doubt Few is better than what we have, but he (W-L) has benefited from his conference and a small number of high profile wins outside the conf.

    At the start of this season, he was 5-16 against top 10 teams. He was 21-28 against top 25. He was 17-11 vs the Pac 10 with winning records against only UW and WSU. My point is, his reputation may be greater than his actual record.

    He has never won less than 23 games and his overall before this year was 264-66. But, when Gonz schedules the big boys they more often than not fall flat. He has been to 4 Sweet 16's in his 10 seasons of 10 NCAA qualifiers. No Elite 8's.

    So, let's be judicious about candidates if Ernie is not with us next year.

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  12. Well, 5-16 against Top-10 teams really only tells me that Gonzaga isn't a top-10 team, which I certainly know already. I also agree that Gonzaga is overrated.

    But the problem is look around at the other mid-major coaches, and other up and comers, and you'll find that their records are much, much, worse against Top-10 and Top-25 teams.

    When you are a mid-major coach, or an up and comer, you start getting attention as a "great coach" the moment you notch a single upset. Many of these guys never go on the beat more than 2 or 3 top-25 teams. The losses are forgotten and the coaches are just remembered for their good wins.

    Just remember this post when the season ends. When Kent is fired and names are brought up for replacement, Raveno's name will be brought up by speculators, if not our athletic department. That's a guy with only 1 single win over a top-25 team to his name.

    Look, I'd love to get a tier 2, name coach other than Few. If we do, I'd be ecstatic. But, I'm willing to bet that our coaching search is going to focus around mid-major, and assistant, coaches on the West Coast. I'm not saying that's right, just that I expect that's what's going to happen.

    Remember Kilkenny's quotes from last year about the fact that he doesn't have a Rolodex with all these big names on it, because of how new he was to the position? Well, I don't think Bellotti has many more names in his Rolodex either.

    If West Coast mid-majors are the candidates, Few is far and away the best choice. Really the only choice that isn't a disappointment, in my opinion.

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  13. I saw some of both the Gonzaga - St. Mary's game, and St. Mary's - Portland game. Regardless of coach I would be ecstatic to see our Ducks play with the energy, enthusiasm, screening, rebounding, set plays, etc. that any of those 3 coaches bring. The Ducks, with our current group of athletes, can play better with the proper motivation and direction.

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  14. Did you happen to see the UW-Portland game? Portland lost by 40 and looked slow, uninspired, undisciplined and they quit after only a few minutes.

    I'm not saying it necessarily means anything, but judging based on such a small sample, of only seeing a few games isn't the best thing, IMO.

    And the overall track record of Portland doesn't inspire me with much enthusiasm for Raveno as a coach.

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  15. Jay,

    I really hope that the depression of the last three games doesn't kill your blog for the rest of the season. You are one of the smartest Duck hoops fans there is, please post something about the games this weekend. Don't make me crawl back to the eDuck Hoops forum cesspool!

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  16. Oh, my blog isn't done. I was going to post last night, but decided against it. The game was just so laughably bad and everything that I began to say about it sounded too mean.

    I mean about 5 minutes into the game Longmire was already 0-6 from the floor and I'm thinking what in the world of the last 3 years would lead anybody to think that Longmire should be taking shots at every chance?

    I actually like LaKendrick, but he's Jordan Kent reincarnate. He should not be shooting the ball and he was playing as if our plan was for him to be our Kobe Bryant.

    It was funny, and I had a few different ways I was thinking about going with a post, but they all seemed a little too mean spirited so I decided I'd just wait until tomorrow's game was over and do a combined post for the weekend.

    But, win or lose, no matter what happens with Duck Hoops, if the program rebounds, or we fall into the abyss, I'm planning to keep this blog. I meant what I said in my first post. Basketball is an afterthought at U of O, but it will always be my number 1 love.

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