Tuesday, March 9, 2010

I'm on the Few bandwagon.

An article in today's Register Guard talks about the AD getting ready to open up the checkbook for a coaching hire, specifically mentioning that Few might be the top target.

I hope that's the case, and that Few accepts. Its funny how things can change. A few years ago, every Duck fan was on the replace-Ernie-with-Few bandwagon and I was not sold on him. Now, many Duck fans are starting to look past Few to other targets, and I have come around to the idea.

My very top choice isn't happening. Mike Anderson. He's a great coach, but he might not even be the best fit even if there was interest (which there's not). But, I just love the way they play.

And I still believe that Few's the best fit and the perfect choice. There's a couple other guys I'd be happy with, Turgeon among those. But I think Few is really the guy we are looking for.

Basketball-wise, its somewhat of a crap shoot no matter who you get. Everybody always likes to speak in absolutes and hyperbole, but nobody really knows how a coach is going to do at any given job until they get there. So there are arguments both for and against him, on the court (as there are for every coach).

Looking at the negatives...

He's been in the tournament a ton, and never taken his team past the Sweet Sixteen. This is a legitimate concern. We are replacing Ernie, who has gone to the Elite 8 twice, and expecting to get better. Can Few get deeper into the tournament? While I do feel this is a valid concern, most of our choices out there aren't going to have coached in the Elite 8.

He took over a program in great shape and has really maintained it, rather than built it himself. I don't think this concern holds much weight for a few reasons. First, we aren't asking him to do a rebuild. Yes, we've been at, or near, the bottom of the Pac-10 for 2 seasons. But we are only 2 seasons removed from the tournament, 3 seasons removed from the Elite 8, and have a roster full of talented (though raw) players.

In fact, I think you could easily take the other side of that position and frame it as a positive. Love him or hate him, Ernie was not a bad program builder. We are in much better shape than when he took over. He built and rebuilt Elite 8 teams here twice. What ultimately got Ernie fired was being unable to maintain any kind of consistancy once there. While not taking over a program that had just reached the elite 8 the year prior, like he did with Gonzaga, this situation is much closer to that, than it is to a rebuild.

I would also consider that Ernie recent pattern with his young players has been a couple years down, followed by 2 up years. Its not altogether improbable that, even had he returned, next year isn't about to hit that up-cycle anyway. Dunigan, Humphrey, Sim, Williams, Crittle, Wiley, Armstead and Jacob will be all upperclassmen (yes, time flies). Singler and Wilson were nice contributers as freshmen and next year is not nearly as bleak as this year looked.

We can find questions, answers and arguments about all of our coaching choices similar to the ones above. Where Few really seperates himself from the rest of the field would be in longevity. If he's interested in coming to Oregon, you'd have to believe its for the long haul. He's not an NBA coach. He's a local guy. He's turned down bigger opportunities than Oregon for years at Gonzaga. This would be his last stop.

I don't think you can say that about any other hire. Many of the names on the list might bolt after only a couple good seasons. Like I said, I do think that its possible we are poised to break-out next year. How would we like a young coach to come in, get us to the tournament the following 2 years, get all kinds of praise for taking over a 9th place team and getting them to the dance (even though Ernie did that twice), and then watch him bolt for greener pastures.

I'm not a fan of the coaching carousel. We're fortunate, at Oregon to have had some long timers recently. We had Bellotti for 14 years and Ernie for 13 years. Planning to stay at Oregon is high on my list of desires out of the next coach.

So, I'm out front trumpetting for Few to be the hire.