Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Better warm up those wrists this week.

Another game, another zone defense. ASU's zone defense doesn't apply the same kind of pressure on the perimeter that OSU's 1-3-1 does. Against OSU, our biggest problem was getting the ball out of double-teams high on the perimeter. With Armstead rendered ineffective by this, we couldn't rely on his penetration, which could have devastated that zone. With so much of the focus on the perimeter, once you break it down, that defense really breaks down. We couldn't, and didn't break it down.

ASU's defense packs things in really tight and clogs up the middle. They do a great job of taking away dribble penetration and collapsing on the ball anytime it goes into the middle. They don't apply pressure, like OSU does, on ball handlers bringing the ball up. This should, at least, allow us to keep Armstead running the point and freeing up TP to play off ball more.

The problem is that it takes away a lot of what Armstead likes to do, which is breaking down defenders and drive down the lane to create opportunities and score.

Our teams have always struggled against teams that primarily run zone defenses. And yes, that's somewhat damning of coach Kent. In fairness to him, there are plenty of really good coaches out there that struggle with the same thing, including Ben Howland. If you don't run a zone as your primary D, its tough to replicate the look that those teams give you in practice. That's why you see some "lesser talented" programs run zone and pull off upsets. It can level the playing field between talent. I'm not getting into the Kent debate here right now, just feel its fair to point out both sides.

Many Duck fans don't like seeing us just "jack up threes", but the reality is that against ASU we are going to have to hit some. Obviously we want them to be good shots, but those are going to be the best looks ASU is going to give up.

If Armstead can break down a player on the exterior of the zone, the ASU defense will collapse into the paint. They'll be leaving at least one player open on the perimeter for an uncontested 3 in this situation. You have to make them pay for playing defense this way. You have to knock down your open looks. One way we can actually get into easy trouble in this game is to force things into the middle too much. If we can get a quick pass over the top down to Dunigan, we should take it. But, over penetrating against this defense can make scoring difficult. There are simply too many bodies inside the paint when the ball goes down there.

If Dunigan can get shots up quickly over, and around, Boetang we should take it. But he's going to have to pass out of the post as well, which he hasn't yet shown much (and hasn't yet been neccessary).

If Armstead can be really effective driving the ball, he can find the gaps in the zone which will make more defenders commit to him than they want to. If we can do that, you'll see 2 players left wide open on the perimeter. But ASU knows their system really well, and I don't think we can rely on that.

Any way we go (either with ball movement, Armstead breaking down the defense, or passes inside to Dunigan), we are going to need to knock down open 3's. Sim can't have another 0-5 night. Singler can't pass up the open looks he's getting. Wilson and Williams are going to have to knock down their looks as well.

The OSU loss was a disaster, and if there is going to be any hope of rebounding from it, we can't afford to lose this game. You can't take 2 on the road, and then give them back in your very next 2 games and expect to do anything good. And it probably will hinge on how well we shoot the 3 ball.