Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Better warm up those wrists this week.

Another game, another zone defense. ASU's zone defense doesn't apply the same kind of pressure on the perimeter that OSU's 1-3-1 does. Against OSU, our biggest problem was getting the ball out of double-teams high on the perimeter. With Armstead rendered ineffective by this, we couldn't rely on his penetration, which could have devastated that zone. With so much of the focus on the perimeter, once you break it down, that defense really breaks down. We couldn't, and didn't break it down.

ASU's defense packs things in really tight and clogs up the middle. They do a great job of taking away dribble penetration and collapsing on the ball anytime it goes into the middle. They don't apply pressure, like OSU does, on ball handlers bringing the ball up. This should, at least, allow us to keep Armstead running the point and freeing up TP to play off ball more.

The problem is that it takes away a lot of what Armstead likes to do, which is breaking down defenders and drive down the lane to create opportunities and score.

Our teams have always struggled against teams that primarily run zone defenses. And yes, that's somewhat damning of coach Kent. In fairness to him, there are plenty of really good coaches out there that struggle with the same thing, including Ben Howland. If you don't run a zone as your primary D, its tough to replicate the look that those teams give you in practice. That's why you see some "lesser talented" programs run zone and pull off upsets. It can level the playing field between talent. I'm not getting into the Kent debate here right now, just feel its fair to point out both sides.

Many Duck fans don't like seeing us just "jack up threes", but the reality is that against ASU we are going to have to hit some. Obviously we want them to be good shots, but those are going to be the best looks ASU is going to give up.

If Armstead can break down a player on the exterior of the zone, the ASU defense will collapse into the paint. They'll be leaving at least one player open on the perimeter for an uncontested 3 in this situation. You have to make them pay for playing defense this way. You have to knock down your open looks. One way we can actually get into easy trouble in this game is to force things into the middle too much. If we can get a quick pass over the top down to Dunigan, we should take it. But, over penetrating against this defense can make scoring difficult. There are simply too many bodies inside the paint when the ball goes down there.

If Dunigan can get shots up quickly over, and around, Boetang we should take it. But he's going to have to pass out of the post as well, which he hasn't yet shown much (and hasn't yet been neccessary).

If Armstead can be really effective driving the ball, he can find the gaps in the zone which will make more defenders commit to him than they want to. If we can do that, you'll see 2 players left wide open on the perimeter. But ASU knows their system really well, and I don't think we can rely on that.

Any way we go (either with ball movement, Armstead breaking down the defense, or passes inside to Dunigan), we are going to need to knock down open 3's. Sim can't have another 0-5 night. Singler can't pass up the open looks he's getting. Wilson and Williams are going to have to knock down their looks as well.

The OSU loss was a disaster, and if there is going to be any hope of rebounding from it, we can't afford to lose this game. You can't take 2 on the road, and then give them back in your very next 2 games and expect to do anything good. And it probably will hinge on how well we shoot the 3 ball.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

A loss to a sub-200 RPI team is a quick way to ruin things.

Absolutely devastating loss to the Beavers tonight. Forget the implications of playing a rival that hadn't won on your floor in 17 years, or anything like that. It was simply a pathetic performance for a team that had put itself in great position on the opening weekend to lose to a team that bad.

The first 5 possessions said it all, with 5 turnovers. Did the team just not show up to play? Sadly, I don't even think that was the case. I don't think it was a case of overlooking OSU. It wasn't lazy passes, or lethargic play, it was simply poor play.


Armstead, after seemingly taking control of the point guard position, looked like he simply could never figure out how to get a pass around a double team. Repeatedly, we just handed OSU the ball at midcourt going the other way.

Tajuan, after a poor first half, played well in the second half. He played the role of facilitator by neccessity more than anything, but he made some nice drives and passes, and hit a couple shots at least. Nobody else hit shots. I wish I could say it was because of OSU, but we missed lay-ins, wide open shots, free throws, you name it. Tajuan's about the only player I could find anything positive to say about.

In the end, OSU was bad enough that we still even had plenty of chances to get the win. But nobody could make a key bucket. We couldn't get defensive rebounds when we needed them. Dunigan got into early foul trouble and then refused to play defense. Can't follow up a week like he had last week with an effort like tonight. He simply let play after play go for layup without contesting them.

I'm not sure why Longmire got so many minutes tonight. There just isn't anything that he gives us that other players, with better offensive skills, can't give. He's athletic, and there's a role for him on this team, but Wilson, Singler, Williams and Sim all need to be on the floor more. He's got the Jordan Kent syndrome, where we might as well have 4 players on the floor when we're on offense. If the defense doesn't come within 10 feet of you when you've got the ball at the 3 point line you have to make them pay, and he simply can't.

Singler really struggled with the zone tonight as well. And he got into some foul trouble. Not a good outing by him, but both he and Wilson gave a better showing than most of our "veterans".

OSU is a sub-200 RPI team. If you were hoping to have a shot at making the tournament this year, you can't lose at home to them. Sadly, the more important lesson is that, if you are capable of having that kind of season you probably aren't bad enough to lose this game at home in the first place. What was looking like a great opportunity home-stand against the Arizona schools now becomes 2 must-win games.

Up first is ASU, and I'll have a preview of that as the week progresses, but judging by the way we played against the OSU zone defense tonight, that ASU zone should give us even a lot more trouble.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Cougs still crying.

Well, WSU fans are still whining about their loss a week ago. To be fair, I would have been pissed too if we lost a game that way. I wouldn't have called the technical if I was a ref.

But, I'm not a ref. And, while Coug fans have been right in the sense that I've seen celebrations before without a T being called, the WSU bench and fans did go overboard for the celebration as well. Usually its just the bench guys jumping a few feet onto the court. WSU had players nearly out to midcourt, slapping towels at Casto like they were in the locker room. No, it probably should have been a warning, not a tech, but it was excessive.

And, if Oregon would have lost that game, I would have been pissed about the homer job the refs gave us in the first place. The game wouldn't have gotten to overtime without that little bit of home cooking. We had the game well in hand, but the refs were giving Klay Thompson ridiculous star treatment, as if he were Michael Jordan. Calling a lot of incidental contact, and non-contact, that they weren't calling on the other end. EJ Singler drives down the lane and hits a bucket that gets waved off on a charge call, and Klay Thompson then charges into EJ on the other end, but goes to the Free Throw line and fouls EJ out. Mike Dunigan gets held by Casto, allowing WSU to get an offensive board and putback, and Mike gets called for Casto bumping into his knee on the other end. WSU scored only 1 field goal over about the final 8 minutes of regulation. The rest was ref aided points from the stripe.

42 Free Throw attempts for WSU to 16 for Oregon, and the Cougs complain about the one call that didn't go their way.

As I said, I'd be mad about that call too, but one call doesn't decide a game. A bunch of calls going in the favor of one team is much more damaging.

But, I decided to write this, not to debate the validity of the call, but to highlight something obvious that the crying Cougs keep failing to mention. I'll use Seattle P-I Coug writer, Jim Moore, as my example from his latest blog.

That put the Cougs in front 80-78. With .3 remaining, Oregon could not realistically pull off a game-tying or game-winning shot. The only thing you can do with one-third of a second left is "re-direct" or tip the ball in. And with the Ducks inbounding 94 feet from their basket, a WSU victory was more than likely assured.



I keep hearing this argument from the Coogs. That the game was literally over, because we couldn't do anything from full court with that little time. How is it that this keeps getting brought up without mentioning that the following play actually already happened earlier in this very same game.




Are the odds that we pull that off again in the game fairly low? Sure. The Cougs would definitely put people back there to worry about that play happening again. But then again, they could also easily foul us in the act of trying if they are agressive in their defense of it.

Scoring with only 3 tenths of a second left puts the odds highly in your favor, but if you are going to say that it was "over", at least have the decency to mention that you were burned, from 94 feet, in that very same game.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Oregon all alone in 1st place.

I think what we've seen these first few games is a lot of what we are going to be seeing all year long. A lot of close games that go down to the final minutes. For that reason, our road sweep of the Washington schools might end up being even a bigger deal than it seems right now, when all is said and done. There just aren't any real good teams in the league, and nobody seems capable of distancing themselves.

There's no question that our first 2 games were the most impressive 2 games played to start Pac-10 play for any school. That doesn't mean that we will keep it up. I'm optimistic though, for a couple reasons.

1. Guard play

College basketball is always all about guard play. With Malcom Armstead and Tajuan Porter in the backcourt, we are going to have a good shot in games that come down to the final minutes. As I stated above, I think that's going to happen a lot in the Pac-10 this year. We saw Maclom's ability to break down the defense and get into the lane against WSU and Washington. He's also an excellent ball handler and he shouldn't turn it over much in late game situations.

When you add to that Tajuan, who is also very quick, and the most dangerous player in the Pac-10 from deep, that's a backcourt that is capable of making opponents play near flawless ball down the stretch to win. Tajuan is also improved with his ball handling, and penetrating ability this year. That's in part his own hard work and improvement and part the fact that when teams have to key on another player (in this case Armstead) Tajuan has always been at his best.

2. Mike Dunigan

This is still a bit of the wildcard. He's been spectacular for 3 straight games, and really very good for 5 straight. I would hope it keeps up, and I believe it will. Probably not often at the level he was this past week, but still at a pretty high level, with some steps backward here and there.

But, when you take our guard play, and add a shot altering presence in the middle, all of a sudden we don't only have the ability to get good shots in crunch time, but we have the ability to make opponent's shots more difficult.

Mike's play is going to be a big key for us in the Pac-10. The Mike Dunigan that played last week is the conference's best post player, and its not even close.


We have an opportunity here most of us didn't think possible a few short weeks ago. We stand alone in first place, with a very winnable game on Sunday against OSU. Not only is it winnable, but thanks to their epic failure last night, its a game we really can't afford to lose. Fortunately, what looked to be a possible advantage with a tune-up game, turned into a nightmare for OSU. And there is simply no way that a game like that helps you, other than possibly to make your opponent overlook you. Considering some of our own failures, I would be suprised if these Ducks overlook the Beavers.

If we beat OSU, we have a critical home stand against the Arizona schools. Might we be 5-0 in a little more than 2 weeks from now? Even 4-1 would put us in great shape.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

VIDEO: Dunigan shortchanged a spot in the record books

Mike Dunigan was named Pac-10 player of the week this week.

Its the first time Mike's got that honor but, if he keeps playing like he has been for the past couple weeks, it won't be the last. If he plays like this, he's the best post player in the conference, and its not even close.

The Pac-10 honor includes his career high game of 26 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, giving him a 3 game average of 22.7 points, 10.3 boards and 2.7 blocks. He shot 25-35 from the floor (71.4%) and 18-25 from the free throw line for a solid 72%.

He got shortchanged a block in the WSU game, which is actually a mildly big deal (to me at least). Yes, I'm obsessive enough to watch the game again just to keep track. They credit him with 5 blocks against the Cougs, but he had 6. And why its a "mild big deal" is that 5 blocks ties him for the 2nd best single game blocked shot performance in Oregon history. #1 is Blair Rasmussen with 8 blocks in 1984. There have been seven 5 block performances, for the #2 spot. Dunigan is now in that group, though he really should be all alone in 2nd with 6 blocks.

Check out the video evidence, and count for yourself (My apologies for the poor video quality. We can all thank the "sweet deal" with comcast for my inability get quality video when the games aren't shown on a national network).


He also altered a ton of shots this weekend, becoming a real presence inside that we just haven't had for a very, very long time. There were a couple of airballs thrown up from less than 5 feet away from the basket, as Cougs panicked when Dunigan came over to help. He, flat out, abused Casto all night long. 5 of his 6 blocks were on Casto, who ended up shooting 5-14 from the floor. Remember, last year Casto earned Pac-10 All Freshman team honors over Mike. Despite our pitiful performance, that was an insult and an injustice for the coaches to vote Casto over Mike. Dunigan had better numbers than Casto all around, last year, even if you are just looking at Pac-10 play. Casto's playing time increased as the year went on and Dunigan's fell, but Dunigan maintained better numbers throughout.

But, its water under the bridge, and Thursday's game was a pretty clear message about who the better player is right now.

Welcome to my Duck Hoops Blog.

Welcome to my Duck Hoop blog. I've been pretty active around the sports message board world for about a decade, or so, as JayDuck or JayDuck12. I'm a Duck fan (obviously), but those on eDuck probably know me to be a bit more vocal when it comes to hoops than Football. I love both sports, but basketball has always been my first love. I'm 34, and have played competitively, and followed, basketball my whole life.

I may mention football here from time to time, but I'll mostly be keeping to hoops with my blog. I have my opinions on football, but I'll probably just keep most of those on the message boards.

I work on the web, and do some freelance graphic design/video editing/animation work, so I'll sometimes create videos, or other images, of the Ducks or spoofs of our rivals. You may have seen my Total Eclipse of the Heart, Husky video that I made a few years ago (back when the youtube quality really was poor) and that I break out every year for that football game. I've put up some videos of our recruits in the past as well, and have a ton of animated .gifs I've made of Duck plays. I wanted to get this blog up, in part to have a place to keep my web images and videos organized and linked to. Sometimes I'll create an animation, or photoshop a rival coach, upload it somewhere and then forget where it is.

Everybody and their mommas (and her "friend's friends") seem to have Duck football blogs these days, but Duck Basketball has recently been the redheaded stepchild of the major Oregon sports, so I thought I'd give my sports passion a little love.

I went to the Rose Bowl this weekend and I had a great time. We got there early and tailgated all day, saw a bunch of friends and watched a frustrating and mildly dissapointing game that couldn't manage to break my spirit. While there's something very special about college football, when it ends I'm always reminded of why I love hoops so much. March Madness! Win or lose that Rose Bowl, its always a kind of an empty way to finish out the season. If you aren't playing in the title game it really doesn't matter all that much. Its not "win and advance, lose and go home", its "win and go home, lose and go home". I wanted to win and was disappointed when we lost, so I put that game immediately behind me. But if We would have won, I'd have talked about the game for a few days, and then put it behind me anyway. We'll be a little lower in the polls to end the year, and start next year, but in the end its just a game with nothing much riding on it. A very anticlimactic end to a pretty incredible regular season.

The big dance is everything that a post season should be. Bar none the most exciting post season in all of sports (IMO). No 7 game series', just 64(65) teams all going at it until a champion is crowned. I literally get no work done on those days, watching any game I can whether or not Oregon is there.

So in true Ernie Kent fashion, he pulled a rabbit out of his hat just when his back was against the wall. Like most Duck fans this year, I've been reluctant to jump feet first into the pool on the Duck bandwagon. After last season, and the non-conference there was little reason for optimism. But, just when I need a pick me up, with an incredible football season ending with an anticlimactic thud into a pile of excrement, we open conference play with a road sweep of the Washington schools. Outstanding!

I still think its wise to temper the enthusiasm until we see more for a few weeks here. I've seen the latest bracketology has us in the tournament as a 12 seed, facing Gonzaga in Spokane(wouldn't that be interesting?), but the fact that its even a consideration at this point is a minor miracle and just what I needed this weekend.

Armstead is playing the role we recruited him for, Dunigan seems to be "getting it", and TP is finally healthy. It might be worth noting that we didn't have Dunigan and TP playing together in any of our losses this year, because of injuries.

If those 3 can play together like they did the opening weekend of conference play, the sky's the limit for this team. I still expect setbacks, but it sure feels a lot better than it did before Christmas.

We are at the top of the standings, and every other team is looking up at us, doubly so because our 2 wins came on the road and on what should have been the toughest road trip.

So... Go Ducks, and I hope my blog adds something of value for the Duck Hoop community.